Coronavirus Update 3: Spread, Quarantine, Projections, & Vaccine

Welcome to another medcram lecture, we’re going to talk about an update for coronavirus. As of 1:27 2020. We have in China, four thousand four hundred and twenty-eight infected and 106 that have died now. One of those that died recently was Beijing’s first reported death, and this is a 50-year-old gentleman who visited Wuhan on January, 8th and developed fever. Seven days later, on, the 15th went to the hospital on the 21st and then died on the 27th. So this kind of gives you at least an example of one in terms of the natural history of what we’re talking about now over the past day or so, there’s been some epidemiologists in China that have looked at this and they’re trying to parse exactly how well The containment or the quarantine of this area is, and they’ve come up with some pretty sober results. They say that optimistically. If we were to able to get a 90 % containment of the area, they predict based on their models that the peak infection would hit about. 59 thousand people, and that would mean that would be about 1500 deaths. Now, if the containment was worse than that – and there’s been some news about that recently, because the mayor of Wuhan said that about 5 million people went out of the city after there was the virus. And so, if you look at a worst-case scenario of only 50 % containment of the area based on the models that they’ve come up with, is five million people being infected and a death rate of about 100,000 people and in terms of the publication of this, I’m Going to go ahead and put the links in the description below so you’ll have the links to all of this stuff that I’m going to talk about today. So things have kind of heated up. We have Sri Lanka having its first case. This is a Chinese tourist that went to Sri Lanka and these patients being hospitalized in the capital of Colombo. We have the United States ordered a level 3 alert saying no non-essential travel to China. We have a quarantine in China of about 50 million people and one of the areas that’s really going to be of high interest. Is this whole idea of whether the virus can be contracted when the patient or the index case is asymptomatic? This claim was first made by the China’s Health Minister, but there is growing concern because the United States and their Health Department personnel have been unable to look at the data in China because they’re not being allowed to look at that data to see exactly. How is it possible that somebody who does not have symptoms is able to transmit the virus, and so we’re not exactly able to back up that claim? As of this moment, better news in the u.s

Theres been no new confirmed cases overnight, so we’ve got four or five cases. We got two in California, one in Los Angeles County, the other one in Orange County. We have the one in Washington State and that’s an interesting story in and of itself, so in Washington. State the index case themselves is a gentleman who actually went to the market in Wuhan, and currently, health investigators are looking at about 64 different people that he might have had contact with and they’re tracking them down and seeing whether or not they have the virus. So far, the index case himself is doing fine getting back to California. As we mentioned, there were cases in Orange County and also in Los Angeles County. What was just recently announced is that Ontario International Airport is going to be the repatriation center for about 240 Americans who are going to be repatriated back to the United States out of China, and that is a chartered flight and its first going to go to Anchorage Alaska for refueling – and it’s at that point that they’re going to have their first health check and then it will be going on to Ontario International Airport in Southern California, where they will be as soon as they get off the plane. They’re going to be screened to make sure that they’re not sick and to make sure that they don’t have the virus and there’s more details on that article. So that’s something that’s been in the news just recently. In the last few hours, interesting news out of Canada, there is a case in Toronto, which I know very well since I’m originally from Toronto. The patient came from Wuhan and is currently in a hospital there in Toronto called Sunnybrook Health Care Sciences. Interestingly, the husband is in hospital, but the patient’s wife has also tested positive for the corona virus. However, she’s at home and she’s doing quite fine without any symptoms, and I think this is an interesting illustration of how variable the presentation can be of this virus in different individuals, and we’re assuming here that they both picked it up at the market there in Wuhan China and hopefully that the husband did not give it to the wife can that would be the first case of a human to human transfer outside of China. So far we have not had any evidence, at least in the United States or in fact anywhere else in the world other than China, where there has been a human to human transmission of this virus. So that’s good news. Okay, let’s talk about vaccines here, Johnson & Johnson are getting into the fray and try to come up with a vaccine for this virus. They’re saying that it’s going to take anywhere between 8 to 12 months before human testing can take place. The NIH, on the other hand, is saying that they may have something ready in about three months. It’Ll be interesting to see where we will be at that time. A lot of epidemiologists are saying that the peak of this epidemic may be reached in about three months time. A side note here on Johnson & Johnson. They have a very powerful HIV medication which, interestingly, as you may know, HIV is an RNA and virus as well, and they’re wanting to see whether or not the HIV medication is going to be effective against the corona virus and that medication is Prescott so that’ll be Interesting to see how that works now, a common question that gets asked is exactly: how does this virus kill somebody? Why is it that people succumb to the virus and what mechanism and in most of the cases, it’s respiratory failure and something called a RDS? So in the next video I’m going to talk about a RDS and exactly how is it that we treat it? What do we do for it, and why is it that we need to have updated ICU is to deal with a RDS and what’s been the recent evidence in the last couple of years for treating a RDS and how can we improve survival? For some of these viruses, that’s going to be in the next video thanks for joining us and stay tuned for further updates.